Saturday 28 September 2013

Match Report: Tottenham 1-1 Chelsea, Premier League, 28/9/2013, White Hart Lane

Tottenham 1
-Sigurdsson 20

Chelsea 1
- Terry 65
Torres sent off 81

Billed as master vs apprentice for the first time, I didn't quite feel like Obi-Wan vs Anakain in Revenge of the Sith but more like Luke vs Vader in The Empire Strikes Back. AVB, the young, fresh uncut gem of a hero playing the role of the Jedi, taking on the older,  smarter, evil Sith Lord in Mourinho who proved he is still the better fighter despite not getting the result he wanted.

Mourinho left out Juan Mata again. Not a surprise to anyone I'd imagine. Andre Schurrle was the surprise omission for me as he went with Ramires on the right flank (despite seeming to criticise Benitez playing him there last week) with Hazard on the left and Oscar in the middle. Torres replaced Eto'o up front in having impressed against Swindon in mid-week. Villas-Boas stuck with the same side that beat Cardiff a week ago, again ignoring his record signing Erik Lamela in favour of the in-form Andros Townsend. Two goals at Villa on Tuesday was not enough for Jermaine Defoe to oust Robert Soldado from the side and he started on the bench.

Starting Line-Ups
Chelsea started the better. It was clear they were trying to implement Mourinho's long diagonal approach he mentioned last week, trying to beat the offside trap and find space for Hazard, Torres and Ramires in behind the Spurs defence. This had little effect throughout the game and despite dominating possession, Chelsea found themselves behind on 19 minutes thanks to some superb link-up play from Eriksen and Soldado and a great run from Sigurdsonn. It was just this play that Chelsea were lacking from their own striker in the first half.

Chelsea looked flustered and it took them a few minutes to find their rhythm again but once they did they turned up the pressure on Spurs, enjoying a period of dominance in the run up to half time. They temporarily abandoned the long ball approach and instead favoured crosses. Again this approach bore no fruit, Fernando Torres is many things but a target man is not one of them. Lampard and Mikel's performances in midfield were very good, they ensured Chelsea dominated possession and kept their direct opponents Dembele and Paulinho quiet for much of the first period. A chance for Paulinho right on the stroke of half time being his only moment to remember. Terry and Luiz at the back too did what they had to do very well and kept recycling possession for the team.

Second half saw the introduction of the much talked about Juan Mata. He was put on in his preferred number ten slot, behind Torres with Oscar moved to  the left and Hazard to the right. Ramires moved into the centre to partner Lampard while Mikel made way. He did virtually nothing wrong all game but its often a victim of his own defensiveness. 

Mata's impact was crucial but not as much as that of a rejuvenated Fernando Torres who came out for the second half looking an entirely different player, leading the line wonderfully, creating chances for himself and others. This is exactly the type of striker Chelsea need right now and the one they thought they bought from Liverpool for £50m almost three years ago. 

Chelsea once again tried to use the long diagonal method to set up the two new wingers Oscar and Hazard but it was from a set piece that they got their equaliser. A Juan Mata free kick conceded by Vertonghen found the head of John Terry who scored his 33rd Premier League goal for Chelsea. An amazing achievement for a centre half, the most prolific in Premier League history.

From this point on Chelsea were the only side who looked like getting a winner. They piled the pressure on Spurs when they didn't have the ball and dominated possession for the rest of the game. Christian Eriksen failed to make any sort of notable impact in the second half and was replaced by Lewis Holtby. Chelsea were by no means all over Spurs and I think Mourinho would have taken a draw with about 15 minutes to go. As he said himself now, Spurs are title contenders and a point at White Hart Lane is not so much two easy ones dropped anymore.

The Chelsea boss will be left feeling aggrieved however due to an incident between Torres and Jan Vertonghen. This was not the first time these two had clashed. A little scrap between the two in the corner had left some observers feeling Torres should have been sent off there and then. He was dismissed on 81 minutes in an aerial challenge with Vertonghen where he was somehow deemed to be the offender. It seemed ridiculous, but perhaps the referee had the previous incident in mind and saw this as an opportunity to put things right and sent Torres off for a second yellow.

This effectively put and end to any Chelsea offence. They sat back with nine men behind the ball with only Juan Mata up top and let Spurs come at them with everything they had. What Villas-Boas would have done to still have Christian Eriksen on the pitch right about now. The role of primary play-maker fell to Moussa Dembele and he created a golden chance for substitute Jermaine Defoe but Cech was equal to it and the game fizzled out into a 1-1 draw. Both sides would have taken that before kick-off. And  probably also on 75 minutes if truth be told. But the harsh dismissal of Torres will have left Chelsea feeling a burning sense of injustice. Both these sides are title contenders and the bitter taste left in Chelsea mouth after this game could spark this already heated rivalry into one of the league's fiercest.

Player Ratings


Tottenham

Lloris - 7.0
Walker - 7.0
Dawson - 6.9
Vertonghen - 7.2
Naughton - 6.4
Sigurdsonn - 6.5
Dembele - 8.2
Paulinho - 7.0
Townsend - 7.1
Eriksen - 7.2
Soldado - 6.5
Subs:
Chadli (Townsend 62) - 6.2
Holtby (Eriksen 70) - 6.6
Defoe (Soldado 76) - 7.0

Chelsea

Cech - 7.2
Ivanovic - 7.5
Terry - 7.4
Luiz - 7.2
Cole - 6.8
Mikel - 7.2
Lampard - 7.6
Ramires - 7.0
Oscar - 6.4
Hazard - 6.4
Torres - 7.6

Subs:
Mata (Mikel 46) - 7.8
Schurrle (Hazard 70) - 6.2
Azpilicueta (Oscar 82) n/a

Man of the Match: Moussa Dembele - Tottenham


Friday 27 September 2013

The Second Coming Of The Special One

Jose Mourinho famously announced his arrival in England in 2004 by proclaiming that being a European Champion made him not normal like other managers, christening himself 'The Special One' at his very first press conference. The British media loved this and he was immensely popular with them even beyond his departing their shores under a cloud in 2007. He returned in June 2013 claiming he had mellowed, he was more friendly and was now 'The Happy One'. This charade lasted about a week into the season before we saw glimpses of the old Jose, riling up Paul Lambert on the touchline, attempting to undermine his new nemesis at Manchester United David Moyes by blaming him for the Wayne Rooney situation and, in typical Jose fashion, accusing Uefa of an anti-Mourinho bias following Ramires sending off in the Super Cup.

On the pitch, Chelsea started their second life under Mourinho with two routine home wins and a solid draw at Old Trafford. They lost the Super Cup on penalties to Bayern Munich. Following a two week break they lost at Everton and suffered a further shock defeat at home at home to Basle in the opening Champions League game prompting an ominous dressing room visit from owner Roman Abramovich. They bounced back with a win and unconvincing performance against Fulham last weekend before disposing of League One Swindon Town in the League Cup on Tuesday night.

Better the second time around? Not so far for Jose.

His interview with Sky Sports after Chelsea's 2-0 victory over Fulham made for great viewing and really emphasised how unhappy The Happy One had become in just a few short months. You can watch it in full here, but if you haven't got 11 minutes to spare the main points he made were:

  • He is building a different team to what Chelsea had seen in recent years and fans should be patient with him. He said his current side were struggling to break down sides with a "low block" ( a deep defensive line) which they did so well in his first tenure. He wants his team to dominate games playing a high defensive line, control the possession and recover the ball quickly when they lose it. Basically what Barcelona do. Is the owner having an input?
  • Had plenty to say about Juan Mata, how he needs to adapt his game to suit the Mourinho way, stated that Oscar was a better no.10 and that Mata isn't mobile enough and doesn't do enough without the ball. He blamed "previous managers" for this, a thinly-veiled dig at Rafael Benitez.
  • His criticism of Benitez continued. They played horrible defensive football last year, Ramires on the right, Luiz in the middle and Mata as a second striker in a 4-4-1-1 at times. Not wholly accurate but not entirely false either.
  • He stated that he wants width in his team like he had in his previous reign and so has picked Schurrle and Hazard on the wings. He then went on to complain about Eden Hazard always having has back to goal when receiving the ball and not looking to run onto the ball in behind the defence which is what he wants evidently. It's true yes,  but that's the kind of thing that he shouldn't air out in the open.
  • Bemoaned his lack of striking options. Saying Torres was the only one who can head the ball and saying his biggest striking issue was that "Drogba plays for Galatasaray". That really is something that shouldn't be said in public. Paolo Di Canio was sacked only this week following his open criticism of his players. It's generally considered a bad move.
  • Stated that the profile of the players is extremely different from the last time he was at the club and took the time to remind everyone that despite their worst start in a decade, at the time of the interview Chelsea were top of the league. Hard to argue with either of those.
Along with Rafa Benitez he also took a swipe at Jamie Redknapp in the Sky studio, who had publicly questioned his exclusion of Juan Mata.

Jose almost single-handedly changed the landscape of Premier League tactics last time he came to England. He dominated the league in his first two seasons winning the league by twelve and eight points respectively. When he arrived in 2004, amazingly virtually every team in England played a 4-4-2 with two central midfield players. Mourinho changed this, playing a 4-5-1 formation that became a 4-3-3 when they were attacking with (usually) Claude Makelele sitting behind Michael Essien and Frank Lampard in midfield. The extra man in the middle of the pitch gave his side a huge advantage over teams with just two. Opponents playing a simple 4-4-2 struggled to cope with this and Chelsea ran riot.

Jose introduced 'The Makelele role' to England in his 4-3-3

A typical Chelsea goal from this time involved them winning the ball in their own half via Makelele, he lays it off to Lampard, Lampard plays one of the killer 'long diagonal' passes Mourinho mentioned on Saturday in behind the defence to Duff or Robben who runs towards goal, either shooting or squaring it for Drogba to tap in uncontested. Lampard also chipped in with a plentiful supply from midfield. Essien wasn't afraid to burst forward either knowing Claude Makelele would sit back and protect the defence. This team was a tactical masterpiece and ruthlessly efficient.

Mourinho's title winning machine of 04 - 06

Once Drogba found his feet in England he was unplayable. The absolute perfect centre forward. Strong, quick, good technique, great at link-up play and dominant in the air. Essien in his prime was a totally dominant central midfielder, ranging from box to box with seemingly endless energy. Makelele was the perfect shield for the defence and rarely let the side down. He was arguably the most important player in the team. Lampard was at the time one of the best in the world at that position. And the wingers Mourinho had at his disposal, Damien Duff, Joe Cole and Arjen Robben were particularly versatile, able to switch flanks at will and rip teams apart on the counter attack, something which he is trying to replicate with Hazard and Schurrle to minimal effect so far.

The team Mourinho inherited from Benitez at the end of last season could probably not be much more different to his title winning side of 2006. Rafa played a deep line often using Ramires and Lampard in the centre, sometimes shifting the Brazilian out to the wing when one of his 'big three' of Mata, Oscar and Hazard was unavailable and playing David Luiz in the centre of midfield. Only Hazard out of these three could be considered a winger (and not in the same context as Duff or Robben), the other two are no.10s. The three however played very interchangeable roles which often causes defences nightmares. Ramires is an outstanding player and often doesn't get the credit he deserves, especially for his versatility. He can play either the deeper or the more advanced of the midfield roles to great effect and also looks a natural on the right wing. Frank Lampard plays a much deeper role now than he did in his pomp due to his age. The Torres of 2013 offers nowhere near the same presence as the Drogba of 2006. 

Rafa's Chelsea side of 2012/13.

This side wasn't bad by any stretch. They won the Europa League in Amsterdam, finished 3rd in the Premier League and reached the semi-finals of both domestic cups. The seasons wasn't a total failure, but given the lofty standards set by Mourinho and the fact they had won the Champions League twelve months earlier, the fans demanded more.

The most drastic change Mourinho has made to this side in terms of personnel has been to effectively drop Chelsea's player of the year for the last two seasons, Juan Mata, from the side. On Saturday he cited his reasons for this being Mata's lack of defensive effort for the side compared to Oscar. Mourinho likes to play with wingers and has used Hazard and Schurrle in the wide spots this season leaving room just for one advanced play-maker in the side (Benitez basically had three). In Mourniho's eyes he has a straight choice between Oscar and Mata for this position. And for now at least, he has chosen Oscar.

JMM: The most publicised casualty of 'The Mourinho Way'

Jose won the Portuguese League and Uefa Cup in his first full season at Porto before winning the league and Champions League in his second. He won the Premier League title easily in his first two seasons in England. He won the Seirie A crown in his first season with Inter before achieving the treble in his second. At Madrid he broke Barcelona's stranglehold on trophies in his first season winning the Spanish Cup before usurping them and winning La Liga outright in his sophomore year. As he said himself on Saturday, he does tend to bring instant success to every club he goes.

Within 12 months he secured a first title in 50 years for Chelsea 

Its a proud record and one he's defending this season at Stamford Bridge. I think he knows winning the Premier League this year might just be beyond this Chelsea side and he's trying to emphasise that early on to protect his precious reputation which means so much to him. He's painting his own picture for the season: Worst case scenario they lose out in the league and it's no big deal because he's building a team to dominate as they did before. Best case is they take advantage of the power vacuum at the top in the wake of Ferguson's departure and win it. He's then hailed as a managerial genius for being able to win the league title with a team totally contrasting to his usual image.

I think Chelsea have a shot at major honours this year and Mourinho knows this as well as anyone despite what he says. They should breeze through that Champions League group despite the slow start and over two legged ties Mourinho can out-think any manager alive. They should also be considered among the favourites for the Premier League title The main reason being as I mentioned before, the spot as top dog in England is no longer United's to lose. It's there for someone to reach out and secure for themselves. Hence why Arsenal, City and Spurs all spent so much money this summer.

The bottom line is despite asking for time to make things work, Jose is unlikely to be given it. His glowing reputation and even his job is unlikely to survive a trophy-less, rebuilding year at Stamford Bridge. It might not be fair but it's the truth It's not the place you go to manage if you want time. Interestingly, he was the last manager to survive a non-title-winning year at Chelsea in 06/07 and even then he was gone by September of  next season. Abramovich is quick to swing the axe if managers aren't an instant success and Mourinho is finding out he's not going to be the exception to the rule.


The Deep-Lying Playmaker

@MitchDowling

Wednesday 25 September 2013

Prodigal Son or Pantomime Villain? Luis Suarez is back.

On Wednesday night, the return few thought they would witness will finally happen. Luis Suarez is once again available for selection and returns to the Liverpool squad for the first time in  five months for the League Cup tie against their biggest rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Interestingly, Suarez return may not even be the big story on Wednesday night. United are coming off the back of a 4-1 hiding courtesy of neighbours Manchester City contributing to the club's worst start to a league season in a decade and the spotlight is more likely to be on the now under-pressure David Moyes (who Suarez has a history with) than the Uruguayan striker himself, especially if United lose. Suarez is at Liverpool till January at least, probably until the end of the season so this article will look at the possible impact his return will have on the Liverpool side.

Hey Moyes.. remember me?


Luis Suarez was given a ten match ban on April 24th for biting Branislav Ivanovic during Liverpool's 2-2 draw with Chelsea at Anfield. This in addition to his eight match ban in 2011/12 for racially abusing Patrice Evra has made him on of the most controversial and polarising figures in the history of the Premier League. His rap sheet doesn't stop there though. In 2010 he was given a seven game ban by the Dutch FA whilst playing for Ajax for biting the arm of PSV's Ottman Bakkal. He was also given a one match ban by the FA for giving the middle finger to Fulham fans at Craven Cottage last season. Not exactly the best disciplinary record. He famously blocked a shot with his hand for Uruguay against Ghana in the final minutes of the World Cup Quarter final in 2010, receiving a red card and  endeared himself to no one by celebrating wildly when the ensuing penalty was missed. Ghana went out. He was also involved in several diving incidents over the past number of years and performed a mock dive in front of then Everton manager David Moyes, a critic of his, after scoring in the derby last season.

Suarez fancies a piece of Ivanovic, who to his credit did not over-react.

Have Liverpool missed their talismanic striker? Not really it must be said. Liverpool have managed to win seven games of the ten he's been missing for, drawing two and losing only the home fixture against Southampton last weekend. This is down in no small part to the eleven goals contributed by Daniel Sturridge in this period. In the ten games prior to Suarez getting himself banned, Liverpool managed only four victories. Along with three defeats.

There's never been any doubt as to Suarez footballing abilities. He is a truly outstanding player. Quick, sharp, agile, an excellent dribbler, wonderful technique and an eye for goal to rival anyone in the world. He looked a bargain when he arrived from Ajax for £23m in January 2011. Particularly when you consider Andy Carroll joined for £35m just a week later and Torres was sold to Chelsea for £50m that same night. He finished his debut campaign in England with just four goals in thirteen games, famously creating two for Dirk Kuyt in a 3-1 win over Man United ensuring instant endearment among the Liverpool faithful.

Not exactly the best of friends

The racism row erupted in October 2011 when Suarez used a racial insult towards Manchester United's Patrice Evra during a league game between the sides at Anfield. The culture in England is unique in that you could probably punch an opponent in the face and it will most likely be forgotten about in time but racism, biting, spitting and the likes are considered cowardly acts and not tolerated whatsoever. Suarez was found guilty and ordered to sit out eight games. His refusal to shake Patrice Evra's hand at their next meeting was foolish and ensured a sorry chapter for Liverpool that could have been put to bed there and then dragged on for another while. The whole incident further damaged his already tainted reputation and dragged the name of his club and his manager Kenny Daglish, who had stood firmly by him to this point, through the dirt needlessly.

On the pitch, he kept delivering. He scored thirty times in 2012/13 enjoying his best season in a Liverpool shirt, finishing runner-up in the race for the golden boot and being nominated for PFA Player of the Year with stats matched only by Gareth Bale and Robin van Persie. Then came the biting incident which brought his season to a pre-mature end and denied him of the chance to challenge van Persie in the goalscoring charts over the final games.

First to 20: Had he not bitten Ivanovic, Suarez may have won the golden boot last year

This summer, Suarez embroiled himself in yet more controversy when he claimed during an interview with Sid Lowe that Brendan Rodgers should let him leave because he promised too a year ago if Liverpool did not qualify for the Champions League. Blaming the English media (who's help he was now asking for), Suarez portrayed himself as the victim in all this and even enlisted the help of the PFA in order to try force a move from Liverpool with Arsenal seemingly the only interested party after Madrid decided to pursue Bale in earnest. The Gunners were unwilling to meet Liverpool's valuation of the player and the deal died, leaving Suarez with no option other than to remain a Liverpool player for at least another season.

So now that he's back and able to play again, where does he fit in? Rodgers can't really drop Danny Sturridge. When you have the most in-form striker in the Premier League you just can't cast him aside. Not for anyone. So playing Suarez as the lone striker as he was often used last season is not really an option for them. He could be used as a no.10 playing behind Sturridge. David Moyes and Manuel Pellegrini have shown this season how it is possible to include two world-class strikers in the same team in the era of the lone striker.

Suarez as a no.10 playing in the middle off Sturridge

This option does have one minor drawback in that it leaves no room for the talented Phillipe Coutinho who's been outstanding since he moved to Merseyside in January. He's injured right now so Suarez may play here on Wednesday but don't expect it to be the long-term option. While Jordan Henderson has been impressive on the right side so far this season he is a more dispensable option for Rodgers than Coutinho. With that in mind, I expect Suarez to take up a regular berth on the right hand side of the attack.

Suarez on the right, the more likely option

This option makes more sense to me. Coutinho should be playing in between the midfield and strikers where he is most effective. Suarez has played on the wing before, for Ajax and in his early days at Liverpool. Don't expect him to do half as defensive work as  Henderson. While he's not a dead-weight defensively and does do a share, he is a much more attack minded option than the Englishman. Alternatively he could appear on the left flank with Moses moved to the right. I can't see Moses being the one to make way. Rodgers had previously expressed his desire for a winger in his side and Moses fits the bill. Much more so than Henderson.

Liverpool's long term hopes rest with this dynamic duo

Following his appearance at Old Trafford, where he can expect the usual torrent of abuse given the whole Evra story, Suarez and Liverpool's next assignment is away to Sunderland on Sunday before he makes his return to Anfield to face Crystal Palace on October 5th. I am interested to see how the crowd react to him at his home ground. They stood by him so firmly even when he was showering the club with bad press during the Evra scandal among other incidents, but I feel his actions since his season ended last April may have pushed the fans towards breaking point if not beyond it.

The Anfield crowd are a fiercely loyal bunch. I don't think he'll be booed, they don't tend to subject their own players to that,  but I feel the love for him that was so strong and powerful during the last few years may just have lessened somewhat and they may be growing tired of all the negative press he brings upon their club. A club he no longer wants to play for.

Suarez and the Kop in happier times

There comes a point where having a player like Suarez in the dressing room becomes more trouble than it's worth and I think Liverpool reached that point with Suarez this summer. By keeping him, Rodgers has run the risk of creating a very negative environment in a dressing room which at the moment seems quite harmonious. Suarez can be disruptive, he's not a good team player, he's selfish (watch his reaction next time someone doesn't pass him the ball) and he's obviously not that popular among his team-mates, emphasised by the fact that no one ran to celebrate with him when he equalised against Chelsea last season. Him spending the summer trying to leave the club will only have further isolated him among the dressing room. Cashing in on him during the summer might have been the best option but unfortunately for Rodgers, no one was willing to meet Liverpool's £55m valuation.

With Suarez you will always have controversy. Upon his return in 2012, within three days he had kicked Scott Parker and snubbed Evra's handshake at Old Trafford. This negative publicity may have affected performances at Anfield as Liverpool lost six of their next seven league games, plummeting down the table. The Kop will hope history does not repeat itself as Suarez gets ready to suit up again on Wednesday night.


The Deep-Lying Playmaker


@MitchDowling

Friday 20 September 2013

Carlo Ancelotti and his Real Madrid

The Jose Mourinho and Real Madrid love story ended last summer in acrimonious circumstances. Looking back now they really weren't made for each other at all. Fire and Ice. Mourinho a defensive tactical mastermind with a very much 'win ugly' approach and Madrid, a club historically renowned for playing exciting, attacking football and entertaining their fans. How did we ever think this was going to end any other way?

Step forward Carlo Ancelotti. Former Juventus, Milan, Chelsea and PSG coach with a glittering resume. Four European cups to his name, two each as a player and a manager at Milan. A league and cup double at Chelsea to go with titles at Milan and in his only full season at PSG, he is the man charged with bringing the coveted tenth European crown, and the first since 2002 to Real Madrid.

Madrid manager: Dream job or poisoned chalice?


Vicente del Bosque was the last man to lead Madrid to European glory eleven years ago. Between his departure in 2003 and Mourinho's arrival from Inter in 2010, the club had nine full-time managers in charge including Juande Ramos (formerly of Spurs), Fabio Capello, and current Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini. Between them, they managed two La Liga titles and two Spanish Super Cups in seven mostly miserable seasons. The instability at the club during this period was there for all to see. Capello was sacked ten days after reclaiming the La Liga title from Barcelona (just as he had been in 1997) and the club burned through a shocking four different managers during one calendar year in 2004.

The giant trophy has not come 'home' since 2002

Mourinho steadied the ship as he tends to do. He didn't bring instant success. His first Classico famously ended in a 5-0 trouncing at the Camp Nou. He actually amassed less points than his predecessor Pellegrini had during his sole campaign as Madrid lost out to Barcelona in the league and at the semi-finals in Europe but gained a measure of revenge with a Copa Del Rey win, denying Guardiola another treble. He went one better in 2012 as Madrid won the league title in majestic fashion with a record number of points but again they lost out to in the semi-finals of the Champions League, this time to Bayern. His final season was marred with fall outs with fans and players alike as The Special One ended a season without a major trophy for the first time in eleven years.

Fans in England go to football matches to support their clubs. Fans in Spain go to the Bernabeau or the Camp Nou like they were going to the theatre. They expect to be entertained. Most would prefer a thrilling and uncomfortable 4-3 to a dominant 2-0 win. This simply isn't Mourinho's style. It never has been. His own pragmatic philosophy has brought him unprecedented success at every club he's been at over the past decade but it never fit into the Madrid way of doing things and the fans were never going to warm to him

At Madrid, Jose used a 4-2-3-1 philosophy in most games, altering it to a more defensive structure using an anchor-man for the bigger games. He used Xabi Alonso as a deep-lying playmaker alongside Khedira as a ball-winning midfielder with little attacking responsibilities. The formation was far from fluid and everyone had  a set role. Front four guys attack. Everyone else just make sure you don't concede.

Mourinho's Madrid

His defensive philosophy was emphasised in the first leg of the 2011 Champions League semi-final. Where he played a central midfield trio of Xabi Alonso behind Lassana Diarra and Pepe at home to Barcelona. It was probably the only way he was going have a chance to beat this incredible Barcelona side. Hold them to a 0-0, maybe sneak a quick goal on the counter and go to Catalonia with everything still to play for. But it just wasn't how a Real Madrid team was expected to approach a game, particularly a home one against their greatest rivals.

Statistics would indicate his approach didn't bear fruit. Madrid not only lost that game to Barcelona 2-0, but overall they conceded more league goals than Barcelona in each of his three seasons there.

It was rarely all smiles for Jose at Madrid


It's no surprise  that Mourinho was never really loved at Madrid. Their fans demand fiery passionate all out attacking football. Mourinho gave them defensive pragmatism and relied on the creative genius of a few players to beat teams. His time in charge ended last June and he returned to Chelsea who's fans love and admiration for him is unquestionable. It wasn't always for his replacement at Santiago Bernabeau. Carlo Ancelotti spent two years at Chelsea between 2009 and 2011. He won the club's first double in his first season but lost out to United at home and in Europe the following season amid some lacklustre performances and vocal discontent from the fans and as a result was sacked unceremoniously straight after giving his post match interview on the final day of the season.

Ancelotti is a more versatile and more attack minded coach than Mourinho. He notoriously used the diamond formation to great effect at AC Milan during his reign there which brought them two European Cups. Ancelotti brought this formation to London and employed it from the off, using Essien, Lampard, Ballack and Deco in a four-man central midfield. This changed quite drastically over the course of the season. By the title run-in, it grown to resemble more of a 'Christmas Tree' 4-3-2-1 formation. This was used to great effect as Chelsea went on a surging run, regularly dishing out hidings en-route to clinching the league and cup double. Malouda cutting in from the left side was one of the players of the season, certainly the later half. Drogba and Lampard were also instrumental.

Ancelotti's title winners at Chelsea

He has managed PSG since but it's hard to analyse his time here as his side had no consistent formation over the eighteen months. At times he opted went with a similar formation to what brought him success at Chelsea, other times he went for a 4-4-2 or a very Italian, very narrow 4-3-2-1. He even reverted to the diamond at times. Either way he brought them to a first Ligue Un title in twenty years and a quarter final appearance in the Champions League. Albeit with pretty much unlimited financial resources at his disposal.

He took over at Madrid during the summer relatively un-noticed as the newspapers busied themselves with transfer speculation. Madrid brought in some domestic talent early on in the summer. Asier Illarramendi arrived from Real Socidead for €32 million becoming the clubs most expensive Spaniard ever. Isco also arrived from Malaga for €30 million having impressed at the U21 European Championships at the summer.

Injury to Xabi Alonso at the start of the season has meant an extended run of games for Luka Modric, who wasn't first choice under Mourinho, alongside Khedira in midfield. Ozil's departure has meant Isco has been gifted a regular starting berth in the attacking midfield role. Modric will look to get forward more than Alonso did and should be allowed to do so under Ancelotti. Di Maria's place in this team will not likely last the next couple of weeks. Khedira's spot is also under threat from the aforementioned Illarramendi.

How Madrid have started the season

His Madrid have looked considerably more fluid than Mourinho's and certainly more attack minded. The 6-1 thrashing of Galatasaray on Tuesday night emphasised this. The strict defensive discipline that was there under the previous regime would also appear to have ceased with five goals conceded in the opening five games.

Now as some of you may or may not have heard, Gareth Bale joined Real Madrid this summer. Its obvious where he fits in to this team (on the right wing) but the real curiosity is how this affects the team as a whole. It would be foolish to think Bale will slot right in as a like for like replacement for Di Maria. Bale is an aggressive attacking midfielder, a goal-scorer, a lot like Ronaldo on the opposite flank. With two pacy goal-scoring wingers, I would expect that Ancelotti will adopts a false-nine system.

A false-nine system for those that don't know involves playing a striker as a conventional number nine but having him drop back into advanced midfield positions, aiming to draw the centre backs with him and thus freeing up space for the wingers to run into.  This is, in my opinion, the best option to utilise the combined talents of Ronaldo and Bale.

False Nine: How Ronaldo and Bale can rip teams apart together

The Galacitcos experiment of 2000 - 2006 proved a failure on the pitch at least. While I'm sure they sold countless jerseys (I had one), buying the best player in the world every summer is not the best way to build a team. It proved a case of too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Bale and Ronaldo are both chiefs. And to use another cliche, having two roosters in a hen-house often ends in disaster. Failure to manage this situation correctly and produce the goods on the pitch will no doubt see Ancelotti go the way of the nine before Mourinho. Madrid are ruthless when it comes to managers.

Whether or not Madrid win La Liga this season basically depends on how few points they drop against the 'teams that aren't Barcelona'. Obviously winning both Classicos would help but the other 108 points on offer are where the league will be won at lost. So far they've already dropped 2 away to Villlareal.

But the Champions League is the title they really want and Ancelotti will be under pressure to deliver it. This immense pressure has not been eased by the massive €100 million outlay on Gareth Bale. The crushing of Galatasaray, a team that beat them as recently as April will have sent out a warning signal felt across Europe. Real Madrid are back. Now under new management and they mean business about reclaiming the biggest prize in football. A title that was once theirs by right.


The Deep-Lying Playmaker



If you want to catch a Madrid game soon they have three coming up in six days:

Sunday September 22nd: vs Getafe (H), 6pm.
Wednesday September 24th: vs Elche (A), 9pm.
Saturday September 28th: vs Athletico Madrid (H), 9pm.




Thursday 19 September 2013

Football Mythbusters: United and penalties

Trying out a new concept. I call it Football Mythbusters. Taking a look at a common myth or belief among football fans and investigating to see if there is any truth whatsoever in it. For this trial run we will look to see if there is any bias from the Premier League referees towards Manchester United when it comes to awarding penalties. It has long been a stick used to beat United fans with. They get all the penalties, especially at Old Trafford. The away sides get none. Let's have a look and see if there's any truth in the rumour.

Just to clear a few things up. Firstly no side is entitled to a set number of penalties a season. A lot of managers and fans seem to have forgotten this in recent years. In theory, you should be awarded a penalty kick every time one of your players is fouled in the opponents box. Logic would dictate that a team that has more possession and as a result does more attacking would naturally earn more penalties. After all you can't physically get a penalty when you don't have the ball in your opponents area.

When's the peno coming ref?
Sides who attack more would also tend to do less defending as a result. Therefore experience less occasions when the opposing team has the ball in their back therefore having less opportunities in which to concede penalties.

Teams generally operate in a more attacking manner at home than away. Particularly teams like United, Arsenal and Chelsea who more often than not dominate games at their own ground. This, and the undeniable pressurising effect of the home crowd will result in a team being awarded more penalties at home than away. This is backed up by the stats showing that almost 75% of Premier League penalties over the past ten years have been awarded to the home side.

For this analysis we'll look at penalty statistics for six sides over the past ten seasons. Firstly the subject of this study, Manchester United. Also examined will be the four sides that have competed with United for league titles over the past ten seasons. Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Fulham will also be examined. Fulham, no dis-respect to them, are a good example of a smaller sized club than those previously mentioned and the only applicable one for this analysis having been in the Premier League for all of the previous ten seasons. It will be interesting to compare their penalty statistics to the so-called bigger teams.

Firstly we'll take a look at the total number of penalties awarded to each of the six teams over the past ten seasons.


Man Utd
Man City
Chelsea
Liverpool
Arsenal
Fulham
2003/04
4
4
4
8
6
4
2004/05
3
5
5
4
3
4
2005/06
3
2
4
4
7
4
2006/07
6
4
4
7
10
3
2007/08
6
2
6
5
6
3
2008/09
4
7
2
5
5
5
2009/10
8
5
12
3
4
4
2010/11
5
9
8
7
7
3
2011/12
11
8
5
6
3
4
2012/13
6
6
11
6
5
6
Total
56
52
61
55
56
40


This shows that Chelsea have been awarded the most penalties over the past ten seasons. United have been awarded 56, the same amount as Liverpool and one more than Arsenal. There's nothing out of the ordinary here, as mentioned earlier I expect the likes of United, Chelsea and Arsenal to record the highest numbers here. Unsurprisingly the 'smaller-club' Fulham are well adrift of the title contenders totals with just 40 penalties.

Frank Lampard's goal tally the biggest beneficiary


This doesn't really prove anything other than smaller clubs get fewer penalties than the bigger teams. This, as previously mentioned, is no doubt down to the fact that they do a lot less attacking than the title contending teams.

Let's look only at penalties awarded at home next. There can be no denying that the crowds do influence referees in some cases, particularly at places like Old Trafford and Anfield. Referees get a split second to make a decision and the roar of 60,000 or 70,000 people appealing for a decision can have a big influence over a referee if he's not entirely sure at first glance. It might not be entirely fair, but it's the way it is.

United
City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool
Fulham
2003/04
4
3
5
4
4
4
2004/05
1
3
2
3
3
2
2005/06
2
1
7
2
1
2
2006/07
3
4
8
1
5
3
2007/08
3
0
5
3
3
2
2008/09
4
5
3
2
3
5
2009/10
5
4
3
8
2
1
2010/11
2
8
4
5
3
3
2011/12
9
8
0
3
3
3
2012/13
2
5
4
6
4
4
Total
35
41
41
37
31
29

Again there's not really a whole lot out of the ordinary here. Sides like United, Arsenal and Chelsea who do more attacking at home are obviously likely to get more penalties than teams who do a lot of defending at home. United have been awarded less than Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City although not by much. Interestingly Fulham aren't as far behind the bigger teams in this category, having only won two less penalties than Liverpool over the ten year period.

Finally, probably the most relevant statistic. Penalties conceded at home. Where, according to popular belief, Man United should have a much lower number than their rivals.


United
City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool
Fulham
2003/04
1
3
1
0
0
3
2004/05
1
2
1
0
0
3
2005/06
0
1
0
2
1
1
2006/07
3
2
1
0
0
4
2007/08
0
1
1
1
1
1
2008/09
2
1
2
0
0
1
2009/10
0
3
2
1
2
0
2010/11
1
2
3
2
3
1
2011/12
3
1
1
2
1
1
2012/13
0
1
3
0
2
4
Total
11
17
15
8
10
19


These figures show that United have been penalised more at home than both Chelsea and Liverpool over the past ten seasons. Fans at Stamford Bridge have seen only 8 penalties given against their side in the league over the past decade compared to a whopping 37 awarded to them. Again Fulham record the least desirable value here having conceded a total of 19 penalties at home.

Some percentage statistics. 76% of all penalties awarded at Old Trafford go to the home side. The figure is the same at Anfield, 82% at Stamford Bridge, 73% at the Emirates/Highbury and 71% and Eastlands. Only 60% of penalties awarded at Craven Cottage have been awarded to Fulham. Not all that surprising considering they would often be the predominantly defending team at home.

So what does it all mean?

  • Chelsea have been awarded the most Premier League penalties overall over the past ten seasons with 61. Followed by Man United and Arsenal on 56. Not hugely surprising that these teams have won nine of the ten league titles in this period.
  • United have been penalised the least overall, conceding a total of 25 both home and away. Chelsea and Everton are next on 29.
  • At home Manchester City and Arsenal have been awarded the most spot-kicks with 41 each. Chelsea are next on 37. United languish in fourth on with 35 home penalties over ten years.
  • Crucially for this study, Stamford Bridge is the most unlikely ground in the Premier League for an opposing team to win a penalty and not Old Trafford as many would believe. 

Can we conclude that the referees favour Chelsea then? Not in the slightest. There's not that much of a difference between 8, 10 and 11 or between 25 and 29. United and Chelsea have been constant fixtures at the top of the table for the past ten years and these figures are  exactly what we would expect to see. These small differences arise as a result of circumstances in games and could easily be reversed and the point would still be valid. The top teams get more penalties and concede less because they attack more and defend less.

This  study should dismiss the ridiculous notion that there is a bias towards Man United with regards to the awards of Premier League penalties. We've also shown that it IS possible for opposing teams to get penalties at Old Trafford, statistically it is more likely than at Stamford Bridge or Anfield.



Verdict: Myth busted


The Deep-Lying Playmaker


@MitchDowling

Full penalty stats can be found at www.statbunker.com