Thursday 28 August 2014

Signing Of The Week: Balotelli or Di Maria?

"Cornered the boy kicked out at the world. The world kicked back. A lot fucking harder."

This week has seen two massive moves in the Premier League involving the country's two biggest clubs. Liverpool paid a relatively small fee of £16m for the famously enigmatic Mario Balotelli while Man United have gone and broken the British transfer record, paying £59.7m for Real Madrid's 'unsung hero' Angel Di Maria.

Two transfers that will no doubt have a monumental impact on the Premier League landscape this season. Just what effect can we expect them to have at their new clubs? And who has got the better deal?



Mario Balotelli, Liverpool

Just nineteen months after he left English football, Mario Balotelli is back with his tail between his legs, admitting he never should have left. Balotelli's first spell in England at Man City was defined by moments of controversy, intertwined with some of complete madness, sprinkled with a small bit of footballing genius. He's not just box-office entertainment value, when he wants to be, the lad is world-class.

Brendan Rodgers is an extremely sensible manager, so much so that he's the last boss I'd expect to sanction a move for someone like Balotelli. I do believe he would have vetoed the transfer, had the fee not been so cheap. He admits it is a calculated risk. Balotelli has fallen out with basically every manager he's ever had in senior football. From Jose Mourinho at Inter to his friend and mentor Roberto Mancini at City, Cesare Prandelli at Italy for years and Massimo Allegri at Milan.

Even the great Mourinho could not solve Balotelli

The Liverpool squad at the moment seems to enjoy a great sense of harmony, understanding and general belief in themselves. Two years ago the idea of Jordan Henderson and Joe Allen holding their own against Manchester City's Yaya Toure enforced engine seemed ludicrous but that's exactly what they did for quite a while on Monday evening. Rodgers has instilled the belief in his players that they are quality players, that they do belong here and that has led to them reaching their max potential.

Balotelli has the potential to be the proverbial 'Cat Amongst the Pigeons'. With Suarez gone, this Liverpool side has no standout personality. Anfield hero, Steven Gerrard has relinquished his role somewhat to the Uruguayan in recent season. He is simply too far gone in his career to become the all-action talismanic midfielder he once was and has settled for a more supporting role. The likes of Coutinho, Sterling, Sturridge and Lallana aren't massive egos. They know it's a team game. Liverpool winning football matches comes before any sort of personal glory. I would credit Brendan Rodgers a lot for this mentality that the players seem to share.

Mario Balotelli has a massive ego, to the point where I really don't think team sports suit him. Manchester City, for two and a half years, were the Mario Balotelli show. He had a training ground scrap with just about every member of the squad (new team-mate Kolo Toure was one of his favourite sparring partners) and when that wasn't enough, he even had a knock with his boss Roberto Mancini. He's been described as the most frustrating player to play with by former team-mates. Jose Mourinho once said that if Balotelli even gave 50% in training he'd be the best player in the world. He is essentially an ADHD child with phenomenal talent who has never reached his potential. Think Matt Damon from Good Will Hunting.

Balotelli draws attention to himself like a magnet

On the plus side, Liverpool are getting one of the most naturally talented footballers in the world, who has just turned 24, for a mere £16m. If Balotelli can knuckle down, try to be a team-player, try to keep the controversy to a minimum, Rodgers will have just done an exceptional bit of business. Time will tell if Rodgers has the patience that the late Robin Williams showed towards his pet project Will Hunting. I can't imagine he does.

I'm not even sure Balotelli will be guaranteed first choice at Anfield. Rodgers' system worked very well last year because every player, right up to Luis Suarez, was willing to contribute to the defensive aspect of the game. Balotelli is not a tackler, not a presser and not one to track back to help win the ball back. If he is a starter, it will likely be in a central role with Sturridge pushed out wide. Sterling and Coutinho's roles in this are interchangeable.



What Liverpool now have is impressive strength in depth, enough to make them credible competitors in the Champions League this season. The line-up shown above does not contain £25m Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, Emre Can or Lazar Markovic. None of whom (except maybe Lambert) will be interested in settling for a spot on the bench. I wouldn't be surprised to see another new face arriving before Monday's deadline.





Angel Di Maria, Man United

Poor Fernando Torres no longer has to shoulder the burden of being the most expensive player in British football history. For almost four years now he has trudged lethargically around the pitch at Stamford Bridge as if weighed down by his heavy £50m price tag.  The honour now belongs to Angel Di Maria who this week moved from Real Madrid to Manchester United for £59.7m.

It's a bit of deja vu in terms of player's leaving Madrid. The club has a policy of buying the best available players every summer and totally disregarding the current talent in the squad. For Di Maria this year, ousted by James Rodriguez and Toni Kroos, read Mesut Ozil last year, dismissed as yesterday's news and ditched in favour of that season's 'must haves' who in this case were Isco and Gareth Bale.

I made an analogy last year when Ozil left Real Madrid for Arsenal that the Gunners signing an attacking midfielder when their defence was leaking goals was like buying a plasma screen TV for your bathroom when the toilet flush doesn't work. I think this metaphor is even more applicable in this case. United have lost three pieces of an already threadbare defence over the summer. Having spent £37m on Juan Mata barely six months ago, the acquisition of Di Maria does not seem the most logical purchase, but then again very little this club has done in the past fourteen months has made any sense whatsoever.

Di Maria is good. Really good. And in the form of his life too. Last year at Madrid, Carlo Ancelotti converted him from a pacy winger into more of a central player, using his electrifying pace to run at players from midfield.  It was the second Clasico of last season, the 4-3 game in March where he really grabbed everyone's attention. He looked considerably more of a threat to Barcelona that day than Ronaldo or Bale, creating two goals for Karim Benzema. He continued to impress in his new central role as Madrid stormed towards La Decima, putting in a Man of the Match performance in the Champions League final.

Following that he was off to the World Cup in Brazil where he put in some more impressive performances for Argentina. His injury in the first half of the quarter-final saw his competition ended and Argentina's hopes suffer a fatal blow. They made it to the final but following Di Maria's injury, they didn't manage a single goal for the rest of the tournament, a full 300 minutes of football. It's worth noting that Lionel Messi's performance levels dropped considerably once Di Maria was absent from the side.

For £60m United are getting a CL winner and a genuine star

So where will he fit it? Will United be able to wedge all the attacking talent they have into the same line-up? No they won't. But very few top sides can start all their best players all of the time. What United do have now is impressive strength in depth (at the front end of the pitch) so that should Rooney and van Persie suffer lengthy injuries as they did last winter, the attack will not be significantly blunted this time.

I don't think Di Maria will play the same role he did at Madrid, that was a very unique role which suited that team and those players. Modric and Alonso were content to sit deep and let him bomb forward from the middle. He had limited defensive duties in a team that dominated most games they played. I don't imagine that kind of role would work in the Premier League.

If Van Gaal persists with playing his current formation then you would think the only logical place for Di Maria is the attacking midfield spot currently held by Juan Mata. The Argentinian would bring more dynamism to this role which is something United have lacked in the opening games but I don't think dropping Mata is the answer and I don't believe Van Gaal does either. He's more likely to cram Di Maria in at wing-back or as one of his central midfielders than anything.

For me, the most appealing choice for United would be to drop this 3-4-1-2 formation before it does irreversible damage to this season. Van Gaal will likely revert to the formation he's used throughout his career, a 4-3-3 with two inside forwards. This position suits Di Maria infinitely more than the left-wing back he's likely to be assigned in the other formation. This formation would also require either Rooney or van Persie to play a slightly wider role on the other side. Rooney is the obvious choice for this as he's the more dynamic player and more likely to put in a defensive shift. I'm not talking about playing as a left midfielder, but more the type of role Hazard plays for Chelsea or Ronaldo for Madrid.

Doesn't look half bad.. except for Other

This does leave out Adnan Januzaj and Shinji Kagawa. Januzaj is a very exciting talent who will needs to be playing regularly in order to continue his development. It will be interesting to see how the boss manages his game-time over the coming year and in what role he plays him. Kagawa is fast running out of time to leave his mark on English football and can't have too many complaints about finding himself on the fringes of this side.

If Van Gaal does cut his losses and revert to this formation, I think it could work out very well. Provided of course United do manage to recruit another centre half and central midfield player before Monday's deadline. United's defence has looked so shaky this season. Relying on Jonny Evans as the lead centre-half is not even a position I'd expect a club like Sunderland to find themselves in. Nor would I expect Tom Cleverley to be in contention for a starting berth there. The problem areas need to be fixed before we can even begin to talk about United as contenders again. This plasma screen should give as clear a definition as any in the world but if the toilet doesn't flush, the bathroom is utterly redundant.


So who has done the better deal? For the amount of money they've paid and the potential of the player they've got, the answer is Liverpool. Di Maria is one of the best players in the world right now and United have a real gem of a player who will give them a more incisive edge than last season. But if Brendan Rodgers can curb Balotelli's wild side and exploit the great footballer within, there is no telling what they can achieve.


Thursday 21 August 2014

Why Can't United Do Anything Right?

"The horizon tries but it's just not as kind on the eye"

Let's face it, pretty much every football fan gets excited about big name signings. The buzz generated by a £40m superstar arriving at your club greatly exceeds the sense of anticipation of a few promising young local lads breaking into the side.

 Some United fans were, in a way, looking forward to the post-Ferguson era at the club. It would represent a break from the norm, a venture into the 21st century of football and, a galaxy of big-name stars arriving at Old Trafford and lorry-load of trophies to follow. Plenty of envious eyes had been cast at every star Chelsea and City had acquired over the past number of years. A little over a year after the great man left and the Premier League's first (and only) superclub are devoid of any sort of high-level leadership and direction, and are heading for a prolonged spell in the doldrums.

Nobody would have thought it, but it looks like United have missed the services of a mere chartered accountant as much as they have missed the services of the most successful football manager of all time when both departed in the summer of 2013. Ed Woodward has made an absolute mess of the club's transfer dealings since taking over leadership of the club from David Gill last summer.

Woodward has made Gill look like a master negotiator

With the addition of Marcos Rojo on Wednesday, United have now signed five players since Woodward took over from Gill in July 2013. Compare that to the 7 that have been signed by Arsenal, 11 by City, 12 by Liverpool and a massive 18 by Chelsea. All this considering United have definitely needed to invest heavily in players since the departure of Ferguson. This summer they have signed fewer players than any other team in the Premier League despite, clearly, needing the biggest rebuilding job.

And of the player's Woodward has managed to sign:
  • Marouane Fellaini - managed to not sign him before his release clause expired, for some reason thinking Everton would sell him for cheaper than this (that is fundamentally not what release clauses are for) and ending up paying extra for him, twenty minutes before the deadline.
  • Juan Mata - £37m from Chelsea in January. He is a quality player but this does reek a bit of a panic buy, designed to appease fans (which it did). No other club was willing to pay such a high fee for a player who was clearly not wanted at a club who clearly needed an injection of cash to comply with Financial Fair Play. Not exactly ground-breaking stuff.
  • Luke Shaw - "I want to have my future sorted before the World Cup". The competition came and went without Woodward managing to tie down the player. When he did it was a £30m fee and £100,000 a week wages for a 19 year-old. Seems like a very naive move to me. I don't think Ferguson/Gill would have agreed to that much.
  • Ander Herrera - The transfer that Woodward should have completed  last summer, he managed to wrap up this year by meeting Herrera's release clause, a concept he finally seems to have grasped. Considering he cost more than Kroos and as much as Fabregas, is it really a great deal?

A fifth player, Marcos Rojo has signed this week. This player had to essentially go on strike for a couple of days at Sporting Lisbon to force the transfer through. Woodward and United would unlikely have been able to seal the deal had the player not been so desperate to come to United. Either that or they wouldn't have noticed. Even after all that, United had to agree to pay Nani's wages at Lisbon for a year to secure the deal.

During Woodward's three transfer windows at the helm there have been a variety of mistakes and mishaps which ultimately he has to take responsibility for. Unless you've been living in the depths of the Amazon rainforest, far away from civilisation for the past year, you'll know that Manchester United desperately need a world-class central midfielder or two. Why then have Cesc Fabregas and Toni Kroos, both heavily linked with United, both been allowed to move to other clubs without United doing their all to attract them. And it's not as if either of them turned down United. Fabregas, for sure, would have joined United this summer if they had quickly renewed last summer's interest.

Look at what you could have won: Cesc shows United what they are missing

Very recently there is the curious case of Tomas Vermaelen. A player who Louis van Gaal identified as one he wanted and one who himself expected to be playing at Old Trafford this season has sat idly by and waited for United to come knocking. They simply never did and ended up going into the first game of the season with two fit defenders in the first team as Vermaelen decided he couldn't wait any longer and moved to Barcelona.

Real Madrid, fresh off their best season in years, winning the Champions League and Copa Del Rey, spent £75m on World Cup stars James Rodriguez and Toni Kroos. Barcelona looking to bounce back from a trophyless campaign went out and spent £75m on Luis Suarez plus another £50m on the likes of Vermaelen, Rakitic and Matheiu. Bayern Munich won 'only the domestic double' last season and have brought in their biggest rivals best player (again), Robert Lewandowski to try and put that right next season. Man United finished 7th in the Premier League last season and have responded by buying Spain's 14th choice midfielder and a teenage left back from Southampton. Herrera and Shaw, not Fabregas and Bale.

Woodward came out during the summer and said United would not hesitate to break the world transfer record this summer. I can only assume at this stage he doesn't know how. United have been constantly linked with stellar names since he took on this rebuilding job. Last season it was the likes of Ozil and Thiago (both moved clubs). This year it is Vidal and Di Maria (at least one of them will). Why doesn't Woodward go out and sign one of them? Or at least try. For one it would be a massive statement of ambition and a warning shot to all the rivals that Manchester United are still alive and kicking. The papers keep linking United with these players and the club just simply don't take action. It's as if a culture of lethargy set in when they could bank on Fergie to get them out of any hole.

I have no idea what I'm doing..

It just baffles me how a club, a business even, this size can allow itself to be run so poorly. The Glazer's aren't football people but surely they realize that the reputation of the great Manchester United brand is taking a serious hit right now. Imagine McDonalds being sued for selling raw burgers in some branches. People would go to Burger King instead and profits would nose-dive. If Apple launched a new sub-standard iPhone, everyone would flock to Sony and HTC instead. The brand Manchester United is being damaged right now and if they continue the way they are going, sooner or later, new football fans are going to choose to support City and pile their hard-earned cash into going to see them and buying their jersey instead.

The Director of Football is an often vilified position in football but that might be exactly what United need going forward. I'm sure Ed Woodward is a highly intelligent man but running a football club is best left to football people. Woodward has actually proved himself very capable at securing sponsorship deals for the club around the globe over the past number of years but he only has his current job because of the role he played in helping the Glazer's secure their takeover in 2005. Negotiating with business and football clubs/players are totally different and here he finds himself out of his depth.




Thursday 14 August 2014

2014/15 Grand Spectacular Season Preview

"Fever got me guilty. Just go ahead and kill me."
Arsenal

The trophy drought is finally at an end, Aaron Ramsey's dramatic late winner at Wembley to cap a remarkable season made sure of that. This summer did however mark a decade since Arsenal last won the Premier League, a trophy Arsene Wenger managed to win three times in his first seven full seasons in England, a trophy they are now over-due.

Alexis Sanchez has come in from Barcelona, a fantastic player who will no doubt shine in the Premier League but Arsenal's failure to address their obvious weaknesses will prevent them from winning the title again this year. All they have done is add more flair.

We need only look at the hidings they took at Liverpool and Chelsea, the 3-0 thumping at Goodison Park, all occasions where Wenger got it horribly wrong and churned out the line he's been using to explain every big Arsenal defeat since about 2008 "lack of mental strength".

While a lack of mental strength is true to some extent, Wenger's lack of tactical nous is what cost them. His failure to deploy a defensive midfielder cost them 11 goals against two title rivals and his refusal to adapt his gameplan against Everton saw Roberto Martinez make a fool of him. Wenger's a fan of flair players and attacking football. Nothing wrong with that. But if he continues to neglect the nitty gritty tactical and defensive aspects of the game, Arsenal's title drought will continue indefinitely.

The Community Shield victory over Man City may yet prove a watershed moment for them. Here they came up against a top side and danced all over them. It may prove a different story however when there are more meaningful prizes at stake.

Verdict: I can't see them competing for the title in the long-run but they definitely have the edge over all the Champions League hopefuls right now. Wenger still won't beat Mourinho though. 3rd



Aston Villa

They don't get as much media attention as some of the others, but Aston Villa are a club in pretty dire straits right now. Randy Lerner has spent the summer trying to sell the club but to no avail. History tells us that when all is not right behind the scenes, the show never lives up to potential on-stage. Villa are in trouble.

Villa's arrivals this summer have been limited mostly to players who were going for free. Kieran Richardson, Phillipe Senderos and Joe Cole have all arrived at the club, adding some much needed experience to what is a very young side.

Roy Keane has also arrived as Paul Lambert's assistant manager, surely with a view to taking the job permanently once Lambert is inevitable sacked in November. Villa are a big club, with a rich history and a passionate, loyal fanbase but I fear for them this year, I really do.

Verdict: I'll be very surprised if they are  not in the relegation dogfight come the final games of the season. The only saving grace for them is that there are worse sides in the division. 17th



Burnley

They very well might become this season's plucky underdogs that capture the hearts of many fans but that won't save them. An very middling squad that was fired to promotion by Danny Ings and Sam Vokes, the later of whom will miss the first half o.f the season, will likely struggle to mount much of a survival challenge this season.

One thing they do have is a very likeable, headstrong boss in Sean Dyche who will relish the chance to implement his style of play in the Premier League. Even if Burnley crash and burn this season, I hope he makes it to the end with his job.

Verdict: I do love an underdog but I see absolutely nothing about Burnley that makes me think they can survive. 20th.


Chelsea

The best manager in the league, the best defence in the league, all Chelsea lacked last season was a potent striker and a playmaker capable of unpicking the tightest defences. They went straight out and spent £60m on Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas. Chelsea are now, quite deservedly, bookies favourites for the Premier League title.

They've also added Felipe Luis from Atletico and Didier Drogba has returned to the club where he is loved by all. Plus a full season of Nemanja Matic, one of the outstanding players of the second half of last season, makes Chelsea's first XI the most complete in the Premier League. It's so good, I haven't even had to mention player of the year candidate Eden Hazard, Oscar or captain John Terry who looked a new man last season, revitalised under his new/old boss.

Failure to put away the smaller teams is what killed them last year. Diego Costa, a bully of a striker, will surely thrive against the likes of Leicester and West Brom this year, ensuring slip-ups are kept to a minimum. In Mourinho they have arguably the best tactician to ever coach a football side. Doubles against Liverpool and City last year were his doing. His battles with his old friend and mentor Louis van Gaal will be fascinating. Probably both boring 0-0s, but tactically fascinating.

Verdict: Mourinho has no excuses this time around. He can't blame Benitez anymore. This is his team now and their failings will be his own. Luckily for him, I don't think there will be any. Domestically at least. 1st



Crystal Palace

Palace will just be hoping for more of the same from boss Tony Pulis. They looked destined for a straight slide back down to the Championship last season before Pulis took over in November and basically turned them into the new Stoke; difficult to break, the team no one wants to face on a cold Tuesday night, the ultimate banana-skin, as Chelsea and Liverpool both discovered in the closing games.

I'd be surprised if they can keep up the amazing form they showed over the final months of last season, producing the kind of results that would have put them in European contention had they not had such a dreadful start to the season. However they are a solid enough side to avoid losing enough games to put them in trouble.

Verdict: Solid side under Pulis. Just as Stoke were Mid-table mediocrity beckons. Never any further though, but any fan will snap your hand off for this. 13th



Everton

The honeymoon period is over and Roberto Martinez now has to ensure his side can continue the excellent progress they made last season, their best ever in the Premier League.

Splashing out £28m on Lukaku is a signal of intent. As is his willingness to join Everton permanently, a sign of the esteem the club and the manager are now held in. I can't imagine a striker of that calibre wanting to join them under David Moyes, they are most definitely a club on the rise.

The challenge this year will be juggling European football with domestic commitments, a challenge they haven't had in quite a while. Martinez has a good first-team but a rather thin squad. If he hasn't bolstered it by the end of the window (may not be able to given the significant outlay on Lukaku), Everton could struggle towards the end of the year, particularly if they have extended cup runs.

Verdict: They won't be significantly worse than last season, it's just United and Spurs will both be better. For their sake, I hope they haven't hit a glass ceiling. Very classy club. 7th.



Hull

Coming off the back of a very impressive first season back in the top-flight, Hull have not been afraid the splash the cash, the owner's ongoing dispute with the fans clearly not stopping him from opening the chequebook. Jake Livermore and Rob Snodgrass being the two most expensive arrivals, Tom Ince has arrived on a free.

Whilst they did reach the FA Cup final last year, their league form suffered drastically as a result. They ended the season in 16th place. This year brings the added distraction of European competition, something a lot of club's of Hull's stature have suffered to manage in recent years. If they make it through to the Europa League group stages, Hull could be in for a very difficult first half of the season consisting of a series of Sunday afternoon struggles after drawing 0-0 in Bratislava the previous Thursday.

They've lost Shane Long to Southampton this week for a rather hefty £12m. If this money is reinvested in the right way, Bruce could have himself a very nice squad come the end of the window.

Verdict: All depends on Europe. If they go out early, which I'm banking on them doing, they'll be mid-table. If they have a good run in Europe, their league form will struggle. 11th



Leicester

Leicester broke the 100 point barrier in the Championship last season. Only two other sides have ever done that, Reading in 2006 and Newcastle in 2010. Both survived comfortably, Reading even finished 8th with a team with virtually no Premier League experience and that's who Leicester will be looking to for inspiration this season.

What they will need is goals and I don't think that David Nugent, top scorer last season, is the man to fire them to Premier League safety. Nugent is another Rob Earnshaw. A good goalscorer in the Championship who has just never been able to cut it in the Premier League. He's 29 now so is running out of time to prove himself as a capable top-flight striker, this year is surely career-defining for him. He won't get another change at the big time.

As for the rest of the side, they are a young bunch with a winning mentally instilled in them due to their success last season. This naivety and consequential fearlessness may well work in their favour this year as they embark on what is a maiden Premier League voyage for most of them.

Verdict: Every year there is one surprise package from the Championship and it could well be Leicester this season. Reading in 06/07 and Stoke 07/08 being the best examples. However I can't justify putting them above proven Premier League teams with no proof to back it up. 19th



Liverpool

They would have been deserving champions last season but it wasn't to be and I feel their best shot at ending a mammoth championship drought may have come and gone.

Suarez, 31 league goals last year, has left in disgrace. Rodgers has wasted no time in spending the warchest this departure gave him, choosing to strengthen the defence and give the squad increased depth rather than opting to spend £50m + on a like-for-like replacement such as Falcao (he may still do). I think this was a wise choice from Rodgers. Their leaky defence cost them the title last season and the lack of depth in the squad would have been horrifically exposed in Europe this season.

As it stands, I think they are in good shape to compete on both fronts. I don't think they'll be as good as they were at the end of last season but Liverpool are back among the challengers now. It's a big season for the likes of Sterling, Sturridge and Coutinho who must step up to fill the massive void left by Suarez.

Verdict: Liverpool took advantage of a year in which the Premier League had no stand out champion to come within a whisker of stealing the crown themselves. They won't be able to go one better this year. They'll most likely be competing with Arsenal and United for the final two Champions League spots. United have no European football to distract them. Arsenal have the experience of having managed it for years. 5th 



Manchester City

Last time they won the league they took it easy all summer and signed only Jack Rodwell and Scott Sinclair. Bizzare. They surrendered the title meekly the following year. This summer they've added a monster of a centre half in Mangala and another central midfielder in Fernando to compete for a place with Fernandinho, a transfer surely borne purely out of irony.

Stevan Jovetic should be like a new signing this year, if of course he can stay fit. His debut season in England was drastically hampered by injury. Alvaro Negredo was very impressive too over the first couple of months until his form dropped off. Sergio Aguero hasn't been fit since December and Edin Dzeko is criminally underrated. It's a good thing for these guys that Pellegrini likes to play with two forwards which means most of them should see sufficient game time. What a menacing front-line they have.

At the back is where City were vulnerable, particularly on their travels where opponents got at them and refused to be bossed around. Thier high defensive line was exposed at times, particularly when Demichelis was involved. Mangala should provide an excellent partner for Kompany and some much needed steel at the back. I think they'll be different to last season, more consistent and more controlled. It seemed last season they were either hammering teams 6-0 or losing games.

The owners want a Champions League so Pellegrini may shift his focus to that objective this season. May be a tall order considering the limitations that have been put on them following their breach of FFP.

Verdict: Ultimately I think they'll fall short in both Europe and in the Premier League and Pellegrini could find himself sacked. 2nd



Manchester United

The much-anticipated summer splurge on a revamped squad hasn't happened and Louis van Gaal has to make do with two players who were signed before he even took the reigns. United have actually signed fewer players than any other club heading into the new season, strange considering they were probably the squad in need of the biggest overhaul. What the new boss has done is instilled a new formation and attitude at the club and provided a massive morale boost after the knockout blow that was last season.

Last year the team lacked cohesion both defensively and in attack. The games in January against Fulham and Stoke where they cluelessly piled in countless crosses to no one in particular were testament to that. This year they will have a game-plan, particularly in games against the stronger teams. Don't expect them to go 0-6 against the North-West again.

The 3-5-2 formation that looks set to define Manchester United this season will require more and possibly better players to work. The club really should have signed at least one more centre half by now. At the back the squad is looking very thin but up top they have plentiful options, spearheaded by new captain Wayne Rooney.

Verdict: They haven't strengthened enough to be genuine title challengers. But there is a decent squad there and van Gaal will get the best out of players as sure as Moyes got the worst out of them. A finish outside the top four is simply not an option and they know this. 4th


Newcastle

This club just doesn't seem like a happy place. Joe Kinnear, the most useless human being ever, is gone but fan unrest remains with Alan Pardew and Mike Ashley the target of a torrential downpour of abuse towards the end of last season.

To be fair to the fans, they had every right to be disgruntled. Their best player, Yohan Cabaye, was sold in January and not replaced. Performances deteriorated towards relegation form in the spring, and culminated in them losing six games on the spin at the end of the season, somehow they still ended up 10th.

They've made their first permanent signings since before Kinnear arrived, with an impressive nine new signings arriving, only two of them are French and one is Jack Colback, poached from fierce rivals Sunderland.

Verdict: I think the best thing for them to do would be to get rid of Pardew. If they do that they could push for the 'best of the rest' position of 8th. I think Ashley will keep faith in him, unless things go horribly wrong. Fans will almost be hoping they do. 10th



Queens Park Rangers

Watching the play-off final last May it was hard not to feel sorry for Derby. Having dominated the game and looked by far and away the side destined for the promised land of the Premier League, Bobby Zamora capitalised on a defensive error and struck a last-minute winner to send QPR back to the Premier League at the first attempt.

Their last Premier League experience was defined by over-paying average players gross sums of money to perform mediocrely. The likes of Jose Bosingwa springs to mind and refuses to leave. This time however I think the ship will be a bit more steady. Harry will likely keep the bones of his promoted side together. It already has quite a Premier League feel to it with the likes of Joey Barton, Loic Remy and Jermaine Jenas in their ranks. The addition of Rio Ferdinand will add some extra personality to the dressing room. If he can contribute 25 league games this year he'll be doing well.

I think they'll be fine. They look way more Premier League-savy than the other promoted sides and a couple of others too.

Verdict: I think they'll survive this time around. Hopefully, for their sake, they have learned from the mistakes of two years ago. 14th



Southampton

Eh, it will be a 'new look' Southampton to say the least this year. Lallana, Shaw, Lambert, Chambers and Lovren are all gone. I can't see Schneiderlin staying. Jay Rodriguez may stay but ultimately Southampton will be unrecognisable from the entertainers who won the hearts of many last year.

Ronald Koeman, the only Premier League manager with a Twitter account, has taken over from Pochettino. He's quite an experienced manager having coached all over Europe since 2000 and will be aiming to bring the same stability to Southampton that be brought to Dutch crisis club Feyenoord upon his arrival there in 2011. Koeman has also managed PSV and Ajax, winning titles at both as well as relative minnows Vitesse whom he took into Europe. He's also won trophies in Spain and Portugal. More than qualified for this job.

On the pitch, they've added the latest man to score a million goals in the Dutch league but considerably fewer anywhere else, Graziano Pelle, to the ranks. Time will tell if he's an Afonso Alves or a van Nistelrooy. The departures this season will give the likes of James Ward-Prowse the chance to play a starring role in the team. He and whatever talent that amazing factory of an academy produces this year.

They must surely have plenty of cash to spend so expect the squad to be strengthened significantly before the end of the window. I don't think we've seen the last of Southampton in the top half of the Premier League.

Verdict: They won't match the heights of last season but won't be troubled by relegation either. Upper mid table. 9th



Stoke

They have reinvented themselves within the space of a year. Gone are the long ball brutes and here is a team with a decent bit of attacking flair, ex-Barcelona striker and Football Manager 2007 legend Bojan and eh... Charlie Adam I suppose.

Stoke belong to Mark Hughes now, not Tony Pulis and the team reflect his image now in the same way they reflected their previous manager's. Hughes teams are tough to beat but solid going forward, particularly on the counter attack. They've added Premier League experience in Steve Sidwell and Phil Bardsley to the squad which is now looking rather strong.

Seriously though, if Bojan had played Football Manager 2007, he'd be so disappointed that he doesn't have at least three Ballon d'Ors by now.

Verdict: The top seven will be the same as last year, there's a bit of a gulf there. 8th place means best of the rest and that's exactly what Stoke will be aiming for. They have the squad to get it. 8th



Sunderland

There were two sides to Sunderland last year. We saw the good side of them in two stretches, one around the Christmas period and one in the final month where they picked up 75% of their points in less than one third of their games. For the rest of the season we saw an extremely average side who's defining trait was their ill discipline, seeing more red cards than anyone in the division.

Their season was effectively summed up by Adam Johnson. He was unplayable during the purple patches but totally anonymous at other times. It's this inconsistency which gave Sunderland fans a massive scare last season.

Connor Wickham looks promising but needs to avoid becoming the next Andy Carroll. Spending all of their cash on Fabio Borini won't improve the squad much as he was there already on loan last season. The first eleven isn't very strong and there's virtually no strength in depth. They need a few good signings before the close of the window

Verdict: Could be a tough year for them I reckon. 16th



Swansea

In three Premier League seasons they've yet to finish lower than 12, they also have a League Cup and European experience to show for it. However I think the bubble may be about to burst.

Garry Monk seems like a decent guy but no way was he ready to be given this job full time. He has basically been appointed on the back of a 3-0 win over Cardiff in his first match at the helm. While that was no doubt very enjoyable for fans and players alike, I think he's a step down from the previous bosses they've had and Swansea may be in for a year of struggle.

Michu is gone so they will rely on the dependable Wilfred Bony for goals. Not really a problem unless he gets injured. They have Ki back in the team now who impressed last season at Sunderland and Gylfi Sigurdssonn who impressed during a loan spell at the Swans in 2012. These additions, and the overall quality of the squad, will be enough to keep them in the Premier League for another year but I don't see them moving forward this year.

Verdict: The train is slowing down. A worst Premier League finish to-date awaits the Swans. 15th



Tottenham

They are going to be one of the most interesting sides this season. Pochettino has got to work some magic. Funds are limited because they blew all their Gareth Bale money last season so the talented young Argentine coach has to turn this squad of flops and underachievers into a top four side again without spending on the player's he'd actually want.

There might be a few arrivals come September 1st but nothing like the outlay they had last season. Poch now has to get the best out of the likes of Roberto Soldado, Paulinho and Erik Lamela on whom the short-term hopes of this football club currently rest. If his Southampton side are anything to go by, Poch will have his Spurs team playing a high octane pressing game and knocking it around nicely once they have the ball. In other words, totally different from last season and not really suited to the players they have right now. Like I said it will be very interesting.

Verdict: Might be another struggle for them as players and manager get used to one another. Hopefully Levy doesn't swing the axe if things don't get off to a great start. 6th



West Brom

They certainly aren't the yo-yo club they were ten years ago, West Brom have now enjoyed four straight seasons in the Premier League, racking up very credible 8th, 10th and 11th place finishes along the way. Then came last season and a near miss with relegation. This time around they may not be so lucky.

They have a manager in Alan Irvine with no Premier League experience, a thin, ageing squad devoid of any standout flair player of goalscorer. Their only notable addition so far is Joleon Lescott who's spent the last five years counting his cash on the Etihad bench. He can't be the player he was before at Everton. Going forward there's not much to shout about. Berahino looks a decent prospect.

Verdict: Their last five games are Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle and United. If they aren't safe in mid-table by then, The Baggies will be departing the Premier League scene. I'd be amazed if Irvine lasts the year. 18th



West Ham

They survived last season and have made some interesting signings but fans still aren't happy, bemoaning the fact that whilst managed by Sam Allardyce, they will be limited to a long ball game and ugly direct football.

The fans want attractive, attacking football. Kevin Nolan, top scorer last season, finds himself somewhat out of favour with them purely because he's an Allardyce man. The Hammers fans are fiercely passionate. I don't think even breaking into the top 7 would make them warm to Big Sam if he continues to inflict his style of play on them. These things rarely have a happy ending. Expect him not to last the season.

Andy Carroll has cost them £7.5m per goal since his move, he's proved even worse value than the £6m per strike he cost Liverpool.

Verdict: Just like at Newcastle, unrest in the stands could have a negative effect on the pitch. They've made some key signings though so there is the makings of a good squad there. It remains to be seen if they have the right manager to get the best out of it. 12th



Full table

1. Chelsea    
2. Man City
3. Arsenal
4. Man United
5. Liverpool
6. Spurs
7. Everton
8. Stoke
9. Southampton
10. Newcastle
11. Hull
12. West Ham
13. Crystal Palace
14. QPR
15. Swansea
16. Sunderland
17. Aston Villa
18. West Brom
19. Leicester
20. Burnley



Player of the Season

Yaya Toure - I suppose he has to win it sometime. Yaya has been dominating Premier League midfield's for a couple of years and has two Premier League medals but has never won the player of the year award. With Bale and Suarez both now playing in Spain, Yaya's time for individual recognition may have come at last.



Young Player of the Season

Raheem Sterling - It will be a breakout year for the 19 year old father of ten. He came on a lot as a player during the second half of last season, developing his game into that of the complete attacking midfielder rather than the mere pacy winger than Aaron Lennon became. High hopes for him.


FA Cup
It's a strange thing prediciting cup competitions. By logic of course the best team should win the cup and by that reasoning I'm going to go with Chelsea to complete the League and Cup double. Obviously there are surprises every year and it is very rare that the best team actually wins the cup but that's as good a pick as any.


League Cup
This cup is a little different in that nobody takes it all that seriously. I'll back Man United to win this one, pick up the first trophy of the post-Fergie era and hail King Louis as a genius.


Champions League
Of the English teams I think Chelsea have by far the best chance but the winners won't come from the Premier League this year so we have to look abroad. Champions Real Madrid have the strongest squad, boosted by the additions of Kroos, James Rodriguez and possibly Falcao. However the drive that was their to win La Decima won't be the same this year. Plus no one has ever retained the trophy. I'll go with Barcelona, spearheaded by the Suarez-Messi-Neymar attack, to secure El Quinto this year and get the trophy for keeps.


Europa League
Who the hell cares? Well more people than usually do because starting this season, the Europa League winners go into next season's Champions League. So there you go. Inter Milan maybe. Or any one of the eight teams that gets dumped in from the Champions League in spring.


Thursday 7 August 2014

Boots To Fill: How To Survive Without Your Superstar

As Liverpool face into 2014/2015 without their best player for the past three years in Luis Suarez, we take a look at how other Premier League teams have coped with losing their talisman in recent years:


Arsenal 2007/08
- Sold Thierry Henry to Barcelona for £19m in 2007

For a period between 2003 and 2006, Thierry Henry was undoubtedly the best player in England, arguably the best in the world. He lead Arsenal to titles in 2002 and 2004 followed by a Champions League final appearance in 2006. He was PFA Player of the Year twice and Football Writers player of the year three times. Add to this four Premier League Golden Boots and two European Golden Boots and it's not hard to see how good this guy really was.

Unlike the other names on this list, Henry was not coming off a particularly majestic season when he moved. His 06/07 campaign was plagued by injury to the point where his last goal for the club (in that spell at least) came in mid-January. This made his departure somewhat less impactful on Arsenal than it would have been had he left in 2004 for instance.

And, impressively, Arsenal did do better the following season without him. Emmanuel Adebayor and Cesc Fabregas among others really stepped up to the plate for them in 2007/08. The supporting act consisted of the likes of Robin van Persie, Eduardo, even Niklas Bendtner made a solid contribution to the cause as Arsenal mounted their first title challenge in four years.

Cesc and Adebayor shone in Henry's absence

Ultimately, they fell short. Having lead the league for most of the season, Arsenal's title challenge was derailed on a February afternoon at Birmingham. This game saw Eduardo suffer a horrific leg break and James McFadden equalise for Birmingham in the 96th minute. Having suffered only one defeat to this point, the Gunners won one of their next seven league games,  a spell which included defeats to title rivals Chelsea and Man United. This period also saw them exit the Champions League to Liverpool and the FA Cup to United and became the first of what now seems to be the annual 'Arsenal Collapse'.

How badly did they miss Henry? Actually pretty badly I would say. His goals and contributions were accounted for mostly by the likes of Adebayor but above all else Arsenal missed leadership that year. The sight of William Gallas, club captain, sitting down sulking on the pitch at St Andrews after Arsenal had thrown away the points is one that will live long in the memory. Would Henry (captain the season before) have behaved the same way? Not in a million years.

It is the leadership qualities that Henry brought, that Bergkamp brought, that Vieira brought, that Arsenal have not had since the mass exodus of the Invincibles team between 2005 and 2007.



Man United 2009/10
- Sold Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid for £80m in 2009

Henry won countless individual awards at Arsenal but the biggest one in the sport eluded him. Cristiano Ronaldo on the other hand was the reigning World Player of the Year when he moved from Manchester United to Real Madrid in the summer of 2009.

Ronaldo was, and still is, an utter phenomenon. He spearheaded United's drive towards a hat-trick of titles from 2007 to 2009 and found the net in Moscow as United were crowned Kings of Europe in 2008. He was PFA Player of the Year in 2007 and 2008, also bagging Young Player of the Year in 2007 and won the Golden Boot in 2008 with a record 31 league goals. Without question, the finest footballer on the planet at this time.

"It's because I'm so good"

Having asked to leave in 2008 amid prolonged interest from Madrid, Ronaldo was persuaded to stay by Sir Alex Ferguson, presumably with a guarantee that he would be allowed to leave at a future date. Ronaldo once again pleaded to be allowed to follow his boyhood dream in 2009 after United were humbled by Barcelona in Rome. Real Madrid, embarking on a second Galactico project, smashed the world transfer record and brought Ronaldo to Spain for a monstrous £80m, just days after they had set the record of £56m to take Kaka from AC Milan.

Aiming for a fourth consecutive title, United were linked with many big names and the fans got excited. But Fergie chose to replace Ronaldo with Antonio Valencia from Wigan. Ronaldo's compatriot Nani was the man many touted to step up and and fill the massive void in the attack. Nani was good in patches during the year, Valencia settled in very well and Wayne Rooney had by far the best year of his life. Despite all this, United took a step back that year. Their stranglehold on the league title was broken by Chelsea and they failed to reclaim the Champions League, losing to Bayern on away goals in the quarter-finals.

They missed Ronaldo. Anyone would. However Wayne Rooney really stepped up to the plate and became the team's leader. He set a personal best goal tally of 34 in all competitions. Unfortunately for United he picked up an injury in April. The fortnight he spent on the sidelines saw them drop 5 points in the league (lost the title by just one) and go out of Europe.

A lack of goals from midfield was a problem. One that still exists to this day. Another inverted winger Ashley Young arrived at the club shortly after but United had no one of anywhere near Ronaldo's calibre providing such flair and attacking prowess for the next couple of seasons. His goal contribution was not replaced until Robin van Persie arrived from Arsenal in 2012. Speaking of which...



Arsenal 2012/13
- Sold Robin van Persie to Man United for £24m in 2012

Having lost key players in Fabregas and Nasri the previous summer, Arsenal fans were forced to endure more misery as Robin van Persie decamped to one of their biggest rivals in August 2012.

2011/12 was the first season that van Persie had managed to play more than 25 Premier League games for Arsenal. In fact he played in all 38. He scored 30 goals (37 in all competitions), securing the Golden Boot. He was also unanimously acclaimed as the best player in the country, winning the Players, Writers and Fans Player of the Year awards.

Van Persie left 'to win trophies'

With his contract expiring in 2013 he had a big decision to make. If he did not sign an extension at Arsenal that summer they would have to sell him and in early July he broke the news. If Arsenal did not sell him that summer, he would simply leave for free at the end of the following season. Wenger cashed in and infuriated many fans by selling him to long-time bitter rival Alex Ferguson and Manchester United.

Arsene Wenger did his business early that summer, splashing the cash on Lukas Podolski before the season had ended and adding Olivier Giroud and Santi Cazorla to his attacking line, all prior to van Persie's departure. Wenger insisted the Dutchman would not be sold and that these players were signed to play with him rather than replace him but no one was buying a word of that. Van Persie's Arsenal career was over and the replacements were already in.

RVP repeated his Golden Boot heroics in a different red shirt the following season and Arsenal, on the whole, performed at pretty much the same level in 2012/13 as they had the previous season, amassing similar amounts of points and goals scored and finishing one place lower in 4th.

Having been very much a one man team the previous season, Arsenal's overall spread of goals in the post-RVP era was much greater. In 11/12 only Theo Walcott had managed to join van Persie in double figures for all competitions. He managed to achieve this again the following year but was joined by, strangely enough, the Arsenal's three new arrivals that summer; Cazorla, Giroud and Podolski.


Spurs 2013/13
- Sold Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for £86m

The most recent and worst example of how to cope with life after a talisman occured last season when the Gareth Bale shaped hole in the Tottenham side was their most defining feature at times.

The Bale revolution began in the spring of 2010 when he was moved from left-back to left midfield. He duly won PFA Player of the Year in 2011, excelling on the Champions League stage also. He continued to be Spurs' talisman and scooped the big prize again in 2013 as part of a clean sweep. This couldn't help Spurs back into the Champions League however and once Real Madrid came knocking that summer, Bale was always going to move. Spurs did well in forcing Real to break their own world transfer record for him.

Erik Lamela arrived from Roma for £27m, the man tasked with the responsibility of making Spurs fans forget all about Gareth Bale. He made a total of three league starts all season under both Villas-Boas and Sherwood. Roberto Soldado, £26m from Valencia, was the man they would look to in terms of goals. 24 in his final season in Spain, 6 in his first in England. By the end of the year he found himself on the bench.

Bobby Soldado had a mare of a season

Replacing someone like Bale is near impossible but Spurs were so far off the mark it was ridiculous. Villas-Boas signed seven players that summer, all foreign and not one with Premier League experience. Usually it takes time for players from overseas to settle in so hoping seven new players would gel in a side so quickly was a massive ask. Of them, only Christian Eriksen has really proved himself in England.

Spurs endured a horrible year post-Bale. They suffered five heavy losses to City, Liverpool and Chelsea over the course of the season and found themselves well out of the Champions League race for the first time since 2009. Villas-Boas lost his job in December and was replaced with the equally incompetent Tim Sherwood. Things didn't improve much under Sherwood who was equally tactically naive and generally inconsistent in terms of selection, favouring the youth team players he knew rather than the expensive talent that he did not.


Liverpool 2014/15
- Sold Luis Suarez to Barcelona for £75m

The best example above is probably Arsenal in 2008, certainly in terms of immediate results. They improved sans-Henry due to the emergence of new talent, primarily Fabregas and Adebayor. Do Liverpool have some hidden gems in their squad? Absolutely. Raheem Sterling looked unplayable at times towards the end of last season and Phillipe Coutinho, now that he's adjusted to the English game, is another quality player in the making.

Could be a big year for these two...

Ronaldo's departure from United in 2009 paved the way for Rooney to step up and become the team's star. Perhaps this year Daniel Sturridge will build on the superb breakout year he had last season and propel himself to the Suarez echelons of strikers. If Rodgers doesn't buy another top striker between now and the end of the window then he will be banking on this happening.

What it looks like he is doing is spending the cash windfall received on a number of slightly less glamorous attacking names, like what Arsenal did in 2012. Together, Podolski, Giroud and Cazorla scored 34 league goals, marginally eclipsing van Persie's individual tally from the previous season. Not ideal, but an effective substitute. Goals count the same whether they all come from the one player or are spread throughout the team. Replacing one superstar with two or three quality players can work. Suarez got 31 in the league last season. Imagine this season Lallana contributes 12, Lambert 10 and Markovic 10, might be asking a lot considering they can't all play every game but this is how Arsenal maintained performance following van Persie's departure.

What Liverpool desperately need to avoid is falling into the Spurs trap of last season. Spurs relied so heavily on Bale, far heavier than Liverpool relied on Suarez mind you, and once he left they had no one to turn to. The new signings flopped. Soldado the biggest of the bunch, Lamela not far behind (although he will come good I'm positive). Lallana and Lambert were smart bits of business as they won't have much adapting to do having spent their whole careers in England. Markovic is an exciting talent but a little raw. I think they need to spend again and spend big. Falcao looks like he's off to Real Madrid, Benzema has just signed a new deal there. Balotelli wants out of Milan. Di Maria is surely very available and PSG could surely be persuaded to part company with Cavani or Lavezzi to balance their books...